贸易开放度、经济自由度与经济增长——基于中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的分析

Opening Degree of Trade,Economic Freedom and Economic Growth:The Analysis of Based on China and Relevant Countries along “One Belt and One Road”

使用贸易开放度指标和经济自由度指数分别分析中国与"一带一路"沿线国家的贸易开放度和经济自由度,结果表明中国与"一带一路"沿线国家多数是中等贸易开放度和中等经济自由度国家。在此基础上通过建构经济增长模型并使用两阶段最小二乘法,笔者分析了中国与"一带一路"沿线国家的贸易开放度、经济自由度与经济增长之间的关系,实证结果表明:贸易开放度和经济自由度都是影响中国与"一带一路"沿线国家经济增长的重要因素,尤其是经济自由度对经济增长的促进作用要高于贸易开放度对经济增长的促进作用。因此,本文建议中国与"一带一路"沿线国家应不断深化改革以提高经济自由度,完善和强化市场在资源配置上的主导作用;应不断扩大对外开放以提升贸易开放度,全面推动"一带一路"战略向纵深发展;应大力推进制造业转型升级以促进互利共赢的国际产能合作,不断提高人力资本数量和质量在经济增长中的促进作用。

The paper utilizes trade openness indicator to analyze the openness degree of trade of China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road”, and utilizes economic freedom index to analyze the degree of economic freedom of China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road”. The results show the openness degree of trade of China and most of the countries along “One Belt and One Road” are medium, and the degree of economic freedom of China and most of the countries along “One Belt and One Road” are medium. The paper constructs an economic growth model. The economic growth model includes the variables of the openness degree of trade, the degree of economic freedom, labor, human capital, investment and population based on the above conclusions. The paper uses instrumental variables to effectively deal with the endogenous problem between the variable of degree of economic freedom and the variable of investment. It analyzes the relationship among the openness degree of trade, the degree economic freedom and economic growth of China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road” by using the two-stage least squares method to deal with the endogenous problem between the variable of degree of economic freedom and the variable of investment. The empirical results show that the symbols of regression coefficients of all explanatory variables in the economic growth model are the same as previously expected symbols. The regression coefficients of all explanatory variables in economic growth model are all significant. The economic growth model is suitable and effective to explain the relationship among the openness degree of trade, the degree of economic freedom and economic growth of China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road”. The openness degree oftrade is a key factor which influences the economic growth of China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road”. The degree of economic freedom is also a key factor which influences the economic growth of China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road”. The promoting effect of the degree of economic freedom on economic growth is higher than that of openness degree of trade on economic growth especially. The variable of GDP of China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road” increases when the variable of population of China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road” increases. The variable of GDP of China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road” increases when the variable of labor of China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road” increases. The variable of GDP of China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road” increases when the variable of human capital of China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road”increases. The variable of GDP of China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road” increases when the variable of investment of China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road” increases. Although the openness degree of trade, the decree of economic freedom, labor, human capital, investment and population all promote economic growth of China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road”, the promoting effect of human capital on economic growth is maximal among the variables of the openness degree of trade, the decree of economic freedom, labor, human capital, investment and population. But the promoting effect of investment on economic growth is minimal among the variables of the openness degree of trade, the decree of economic freedom, labor, human capital, investment and population. China and most of the countries along “One Belt and One Road” have relied on the element of investment to promote economic growth for a long time. And the mode of development of China and most of the countries along “One Belt and One Road” is hard to sustain. But the increase of the variable of the openness degree of trade still brings more dividends of economic growth. The increase of the variable of the decree of economic freedom also brings more dividends of economic freedom index. Meanwhile the increase of the employed population promotes economic growth and realize economic boom. The strengthening of the investment in human capital promotes economic growth and realize economic boom, too. The paper also analyzes the relationship among the openness degree of trade, the decree of economic freedom and economic growth of China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road” by using fixed effects model. The results show the above conclusion hasa very good robustness. Because the openness degree of trade is a key factor which promotes significantly the economic growth of China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road”. Meanwhile the decree of economic freedom is also a key factor which promotes significantly the economic growth of China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road”. The promoting effect of the decree of economic freedom on economic growth is higher than that of the openness degree of trade on economic growth especially. This paper suggests China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road” should continually deepen reform to increase the decree of economic freedom. China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road” should improve and strengthen the dominant role of market in resource allocation. China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road” should continue to expand opening-up to promote the openness degree of trade to push roundly deep development of the strategy of “One Belt and One Road”. China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road” should vigorously promote transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry to facilitate mutual benefits and win-win international cooperation in manufacturing. China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road” should improve constantly the quality and quantity of human capital to promote economic growth. This will promote economic growth of China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road”. Meanwhile this also will contribute to realize economic boom of China and the countries along “One Belt and One Road”.