中国与“一路”中东盟成员国经济增长时空依赖关系研究——基于时间与空间效应的视角

Temporal and Spatial Effects of Economic Growth between China and One Road Nations:Based on the Temporal and Spatial Spillover Theory

"一带一路"战略是中国深化对外开放的新战略和新举措。以中国与"21世纪海上丝绸之路"中东盟经济增长的事实为根据,笔者运用时间序列与空间计量方法从时空两种视角来检验中国与"一路"中东盟经济增长的时空依赖关系及其关联机制。研究发现,中国与"一路"中东盟经济增长存在多样相互依赖的外部空间溢出效应,中国经济增长对东盟成员经济增长具有强烈的正向溢出效应,而在东盟成员中只有印度尼西亚和泰国的经济增长才会对中国经济增长产生显著的外部空间溢出效应;在东盟内部成员经济增长之间的关系是竞争型与互补型的;同时中国与印尼和泰国经济增长变动之间是双向关系,而中国与其他东盟成员经济增长变动之间却是单向关系。中国与东盟经济增长相互依赖的外部空间溢出的重要关联机制是贸易与投资。因此,要把中国与东盟自贸区的建设作为"21世纪海上丝绸之路"建设的桥头堡,根据中国与沿线相关国家经济增长依赖关系程度制定不同的国别经济政策,把贸易与投资便利化作为强化中国与沿线相关国家对外经济联系的重要纽带。

One Belt and One Road （B＆R）, which is composed of the Sitk Road Economic Belt and the 21st--Century Maritime Silk Road, is the new strategy for China＇s deepening reform and open--up policy. 60 counties get involved along the One Belt and One Road route, covering 63% and 29% respect to total volume of world population and GDP. More importantly, this strategy is closely tied with China＇s overall development in the future, and has become the top decisions from the central government. Ever since 2013, state leaders have made frequent visits to the countries alongside the One Belt and One Road regions to make efforts on integrating the development strategies within these members. China has proposed the updating version of China ASEAN Free Trade Area, along with the establishment of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and the Silk Road Fund. Strategic mobilization tasks of B＆R have achieved fruitful results by far, and it will come into a new era which is driven by the implementation of specific projects. In terms of strategic positioning, the Silk Road Economic Belt focuses on bringing together China and the vibrant East Asia economic circle with Europe through the continent of Central Asia, while the 21st--Century Maritime Silk Road is designed to go from China＇ s coast to Europe through the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. Considering such differences in involving different parties in these two routes, it is foreseeable that there will be differences in the outcome for these two terms of cooperation. On accelerating the process of building this strategy, ASEAN, the bridgehead for China to expand its influence southward, should act as a demonstration role in guiding China cooperate with the rest of One Road nations. So, with the purpose of enhancing the economic cooperation between China and One Belt and One Road nations, ASEAN should be given the first priority for reasons below. （1）Economic cooperation along the One Belt direction faces more uncertainties in aspects of regional security situation in central Asia. Meanwhile, the security situation in Southeast Asia is more stable. Thus economic cooperation will be less risky along this direction. （2） Existing mechanisms within ASEAN--China Free Trade Area （10＋ 1） provide broad and reliable platform to strengthen communication between Chinaand relevant countries, so as to play the role to attract more countries and regions to participate in this cooperation. （3）The Trans --Pacific Partnership Agreement has been abolished by Donald Trump, soon after he was elected as the 45th president of the USA. At the same time, the political and economic relationship between China and the Philippines turns out to be more relaxed after the involving parties get consensus on suspending the disputes in South China Sea. Thus, it provides excellent chance for China to extend its strategic space southward. The above--mentioned reasons reveal the fact that ASEAN is an excellent choice for China to accelerate the process building the One Belt and One Road strategy. This paper will firstly identify the temporal and spatial effects of economic relationships between China and ASEAN nations, to study what role China is playing in promoting the economic growth within this region, and which country will benefit the most in its cooperation with China. It will provide useful information in detecting whether there exists economic dependencies among China and ASEAN nations. The temporal and spatial effects of economic growth between China and ASEAN are valued using VAR and spatial econometric model. At the same time, trade and investment cooperation served as the major channels for economic interactions. This paper also intends to study to what extend the economic dependencies of these sampled nations can be explained by their mutual trade and investment. Conclusions can be made as follows： （1） There exists an overall stable positive relationship in economic growth between China and ASEAN, and this region should be given first priority in implementing the One Belt and One Road strategy. To be more specific, economic growth in China has positive temporal and spatial effects on ASEAN, but as for ASEAN members, only Indonesia and Thailand have positive feedback on China＇ s economic growth. Namely, such economic interactions between China and ASEAN turn out to be asymmetrical. Indonesia and Thailand （especially for Thailand） exhibit strong bidirectional economic growth dependencies with China, while those interactions between China, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore are unidirectional. （2）As for ASEAN members, there are different types of temporal and spatial effects of economics growth. Both competitive and complementary external Granger casual effects of economic growth relations can be found within ASEAN members. Taking the rest of ASEAN countries as the targeted nations, Thailand demonstrates strong competitive or negative economic ties with them. This is label as ＇ extrusion effect＇ while those relations for Vietnam are complementary. （3）These dependencies in economic growth between China and ASEAN members can be mainly explained by their mutual trade and investment. The economic growth of Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippians has significant granger fluctuations with their export to China. As for FDI, The economic growth of Indonesia, Singapore and the Philippians has closely ties with the inward FDI from China. In general, different foreign and economic policies should be made based on the different temporal and spatial effects of economic growth between China and members of ASEAN. The facilitation of trade and investment is a better choice for economic corporations between China and Members of One Belt and One Road. Namely, it is of great significance to integrate investment with trade, thus promoting trade through investment, or promoting investment through trade. At the same time, it is also of great importance to improve investment and trade facilitation, so as to remove investment and trade barriers for the creation of a good business environment within the region and in all related countries. We need to negotiate with the nations and regions along the B＆R routes on opening free trade areas so as to extend the potentials for further cooperation in the future.