全球价值链体系下中国制造业转型升级分析

A Study of Chinese Manufacturing Industry Transformation and Upgrading in Global Value Chains System

研究目标:归纳全球价值链体系下制造业转型升级方向和规律。研究方法:基于WIOD数据和KPWW方法,通过多元面板回归分析寻找GVCs嵌入位置与分工地位之间的关系,将14个制造业产业按GVCs主导环节归类。以40个经济体嵌入位置的时序变化,讨论升级方向对各国产业升级幅度的影响,分析有利于制造业升级的相关因素。研究发现:14个制造业产业可以分为上游环节主导、下游环节主导和混合主导三类;以三类产业的主导环节作为产业升级方向能够提升产业升级幅度;高级生产要素对制造业升级的促进作用强于传统生产要素。研究创新:根据14个产业的主导环节,提出了不同于"二元驱动"的GVCs混合主导型产业。研究价值:明确了三类制造业产业转型升级的方向和影响因素。

Objectives： Generalizing the direction and law of transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry under Global Value Chains system. Research Methods： Base on the WIOD data, KPWW method and multivariate regression analysis to find the relationship be- tween GVCs embedding position and division of labor and classify the 14 manufacturing in- dustries according to GVCs dominant sectors. Using the timing variations of embedding posi- tions in 40 economies discusses the impact of upgrading direction on various types of industri- al upgrading amplitude. The relevant factors which are investigated for the upgrading of man- ufacturing industry. Research Findings- 14 manufacturing industries are divided into three types which are upstream leading industries, downstream leading industries and mixed lead- ing industries; the advanced factors of production promote the upgrading of the manufactur- ing industry stronger than the traditional factors of production. Research Innovations： Ac- cording to the leading stages of 14 industries, it reveals the difference from GVCs mixed leading industry and ＂binary drive＂ model. Research Value： The direction and factors of transformation and upgrading are cleared in three types of manufacturing industry.