养老保险制度安全的测度方法及实证评价

Measurement Methods and Empirical Evaluation of the Pension System Security

将养老保险制度针对人口老龄化冲击可动用的外部资源和制度调节能力作为衡量其安全性关键指标,从制度自平衡、外部环境支持度和制度可调节度三个维度构建测度养老保险制度安全的方法体系。并选取东、中、东北地区的上海市、安徽省和辽宁省为代表省份,利用构建的测度方法体系实证评估城镇职工基本养老保险制度的安全状况。实证分析发现:辽宁和上海在目前已无法实现制度的财务自平衡,并将在2020年和2025年相继进入不可持续安全等级;安徽省则在8年后无法维持制度的收支自平衡,将于2031年进入危险等级。

In view of the impact of aging population, this article regarded external resources and institutional adjustment ability as the key indicators to measure the pension insurance system＇s security, and built the dimensions ： the degree adjustment. Selecting S methodology to estimate the pension insurance system＇s safety from three of institutional self-balancing, external environment support and institutional hanghai , Anhui and Liaoning province respectively as the representative of China＇ s eastern, central and northeastern, we have assessed the security situation of their basic pension insurance by the measurement system. The results showed that： Currently, Liaoning and Shanghai have been unable to achieve financial self-balance from the pension insurance system, and will respectively enter the unsustainable level in 2020 and 2025. Anhui province will unable to achieve financial self-balance eight years later and will enter into the danger level in 2031.