深圳市大气PM_(2.5)质量浓度与流感样病例发病的关联性分析

Association between ambient PM_(2.5) mass concentration and influenza-like illness reporting in Shenzhen

[目的]探讨深圳市大气中PM_(2.5)质量浓度(简称"浓度")对流感样病例发病人数的短期影响。[方法]收集深圳市2013—2014年气象观测和空气中PM_(2.5)浓度数据,以及同期深圳市18家监测点每周上报的流感样病例发病人次监测数据。采用Poisson分布的广义相加模型在调整混杂因素后分析PM_(2.5)浓度与流感样病例人数的关系,计算RR(95%CI)值,分析PM_(2.5)浓度对各年龄段流感样病例的影响规律。[结果]共收集流感样病例214 456人次。PM_(2.5)周平均值为36.8μg/m^3。在控制了气温、相对湿度等气象因素的影响后,PM_(2.5)浓度每增加1个IQR(29.3μg/m3),深圳市全人群、0~4岁、5~14岁、15~24岁及25~59岁人群的流感样病例均有所增加,其RR值分别为1.092 5(95%CI:1.080 0~1.105 2)、1.115 2(95%CI:1.096 5~1.134 1)、1.053 8(95%CI:1.029 0~1.079 3)、1.148 7(95%CI:1.109 4~1.189 3)及1.086 1(95%CI:1.059 1~1.113 8)。[结论]深圳市大气中PM_(2.5)浓度对各年龄组流感样病例的发病存在短期影响,两者具有一定的关联性。

[Objective] To assess the short-term effect of ambient PM2.5 mass concentration on influenza-like illness occurrence in Shenzhen.[Methods] Records of meteorological factors and ambient PM2.5 levels were collected in Shenzhen from 2013 to 2014. Influenza-like illness reports during the same period were collected from 18 surveillance sites weekly. The relationship between PM2.5 concentration and reported influenza-like illness person-time was analyzed using generalized additive model with Poisson distribution. RR （95%CI） values were calculated. The effect of PM2.5 mass concentration on influenza-like illness for each age group were also assessed.[Results] During the study period, a total of 214 456 influenza-like illness person-times were recorded. The weekly average mass concentration of PM2.5 was 36.8 μg/m3. After adjusting meteorological variables such as temperature and relative humidity, an IQR （29.3 μg/m3） increment of PM2.5 mass concentration was associated with reporting more influenza-like illness cases：RR=1.092 5 （95%CI：1.080 0-1.105 2） for all, 1.115 2 （95%CI：1.096 5-1.134 1） for 0-4 years age group, 1.053 8 （95%CI：1.029 0-1.079 3） for 5-14 years age group, 1.148 7 （95%CI：1.109 4-1.189 3） for 15-24 years age group, and 1.086 1 （95%CI：1.0591-1.113 8） for 25-59 years age group, respectively.[Conclusion] Ambient PM2.5 mass concentration has a short-term effect on influenza-like illness cases for all age groups in Shenzhen. There may be a correlation between ambient PM2.5 and influenza-like illness.