计划生育政策对家庭收入和消费的影响效应研究

Study on Effect of Family Planning Policy on Household Income and Consumption

基于中国家庭发展追踪调查数据,通过对家庭中1980年以后出生人数及其兄弟姐妹情况构造了六类不同计划生育特征属性的家庭类型,采用多分类logistic回归考察了计划生育政策对家庭收入和消费的影响效应。统计结果表明,在新构造的家庭类型中,纯独生子女家庭的人均收入是纯非独生子女家庭人均收入的1.86倍、人均消费是纯非独生子女家庭的1.4倍。但通过回归统计发现,纯非独生子女家庭的人均收入比纯独生子女家庭的人均收入低,而人均消费比纯独生子女家庭略高。可见,计划生育政策对家庭经济收入具有提升效应,而对家庭消费却有一定程度的拉低效应。

Based on the survey data of Chinese family development, by the number of births after 1980 and their siblings in the family to construct 6 family types of different family planning attributes, and using logistic regression, the effect of family planning policy on household income and consumption is analyzed. The statistical results show that in the newly constructed family type, the average per capita income of only one child families is 1.86 times of that of the non only child families, and the per capita consumption is 1.4 times of that of the non only child families. However, through the regression statistics, we found that the per capita income of pure non only child families is lower than that of only one child families, and the per capita consumption is slightly higher than that of only one child families. It can be seen that the family planning policy has a promotion effect on family economic income, but has a certain degree of low effect on household consumption.