普达措国家公园旅游生命周期评判

Evaluation on Life Cycle in Potatso National Park

根据2007—2015年普达措国家公园游客数量的统计数据,基于旅游地生命周期理论,对普达措国家公园构建直线、指数、戈珀兹、Logistic回归、GM(1,1)、ARIMA(1,1,1)6个预测模型。结果表明:GM(1,1)模型的预测效果最好,总体效果为GM(1,1)>Logistic回归>直线趋势>指数趋势>ARIMA(1,1,1)>戈珀兹模型;基于GM(1,1)灰色预测模型的模拟方程为:x(t+1)=49.157 119e^(0.159 615t)±27.302 081,对普达措国家公园未来10年的游客量进行预测,到2025年普达措国家公园的游客量可能会突破500万人。

Based on the resort life cycle theories, 6 prediction models of linear, exponential, GEPTFs, logistic regression, GM （ 1, 1 ） and ARIMA （ 1, 1, 1 ） was constructed with the statistics of tourists in Potatso National Park from 2007 to 2015. The results indicated that GM （ 1, 1 ） model has the best prediction effect, the overall effect were as the follows ： GM （ 1, 1 ） 〉 logistic regression 〉 linear 〉 exponential 〉 ARIMA （ 1, 1, 1） 〉 GEPTYs. The simulation equation based on GM （1, 1） grey forecasting model was χ （t ＋ 1）= 49. 157 119e0.159615t±27. 302081. Visitors in Pudacuo National Park may exceed 5 million people in 2025 based on the prediction of tourist number in the next 10 years.