基于广义流模型的中国保险市场成熟度研究

Research on the Maturity of China's Insurance Market Based on Generalized Flow Model

目前,对中国保险业发展程度的测度和评价指标具有单一性,如保费收入、保险密度、保险深度等常用指标,难以直观、全面测度整个行业的发展状态。为综合评价保险市场发展,采用保险市场成熟度指标,以有效、客观地反映保险业的发育成熟水平及面临的问题。并从经济物理学角度入手,充分考虑保险市场的开放与复杂特性,基于广义流模型,运用人工神经网络模型对2005—2014年保险市场相关数据进行模拟,从多方面对保险市场成熟度进行分析并提出建议。

Currently,estimate and evaluation index for ehina＇s insurance industry is simplicity,such as pre- mium income,insurance density and insurance penetration and other common index,which is hard to esti- mate the whole industrial development state from perceptual intuition and the whole angle.In order to com- prehensively evaluate development of insurance market, insurance market maturity is used to effectively and objectively reflect insurance mature level and confronting problem.Fully considering insurance market opening and complex characteristics from economy and physics angle, based on generalized flow model, u- sing artificial neural network model to simulate related data of insurance market from 2005 to 2014 ,and in- surance market maturity is analyzed and made suggestions in many ways.