进口大宗海运商品短重损失风险评估方法研究

Study on Risk Assessment Method for Short Weight Loss of Import Shipping Commodities

为对商品短重风险实施有效防控,提高短重检出能效,维护对外贸易秩序公平公正,以进口大宗海运商品的短重损失为研究目标,基于风险矩阵、模糊综合评价和层次分析等评估手段,建立了一种短重损失风险评估体系。该体系在风险评估过程中通过综合运用定性分析和定量分析,兼顾经验概率统计和专家评估,提高了风险评估的科学性和准确性,评估结果直观有效,为进口商品重量鉴定开展风险管理提供了一种思路和方法,能够为相关部门开展进口商品风险预警和防范提供有效的依据。

In order to effectively detection efficiency,and maintain implement prevention and control of fair and just foreign trade order,based short weight risk,improve the on the methods of risk matrix, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation （FCE） and analytic hierarchy process （AHP）,a risk assessment system was established with short loss of the import shipping commodities as the research target. In the process of risk assessment,by synthetically using qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,and combining empirical probability statistics and expert evaluation,this system improved the scientific and accuracy of risk assessment,and the result was intuitive and effective. The study can provide a train of thought and method for the risk management of weight survey,and provide effective basis on the import commodities risk early warning and prevention for the relevant departments.