中部地区省会城市房地产与城市经济系统耦合协调研究

Analysis on Coupling Development Between Real Estate and Urban Economic in Provincial Capitals of Central China

为促进房地产与城市经济良性互动、协调发展,借用耦合协调模型和GM(1,1)模型对我国中部地区省会城市房地产与城市经济耦合协调度进行了动态分析与预测。结果表明:(1)2005—2014年城市经济系统得分、增速均较高,城市经济系统发展领先。(2)从耦合关系来看,所有城市均处于颉颃阶段,即将进入磨合阶段。(3)从耦合协调关系来看,中部省会城市整体处于轻度失调发展,即将达到勉强协调,城市经济相对滞后。(4)根据协调度及值,将城市划分为轻度失调发展城市经济系统滞后、轻度失调发展房地产系统滞后、濒临失调发展城市经济滞后三类。(5)2020年中部地区省会城市将形成武汉优质协调,郑州良好协调,长沙、合肥中级协调,太原、南昌勉强协调的格局。

In order to promote the positive interaction and coordinate the development between the real estate and the urban economy, the cou- pling coordination model and the GM （ 1,1 ） model were used to analyze and forecast the real estate and urban economic coupling coordination degree of the provincial capital cities in six provinces. The results showed that： ①From 2005 to 2014, the urban economic system scores and the growth rate were higher, and developed ahead. ②From the coupling relationship, all cities were in antagonistic stage, would soon enter the run- in stage. ③From the coupling and coordination relationship, the central capital city as a whole in a slight imbalance development, was about to reach a reluctant coordi- nation, the city economy was relatively lagging behind. ④According to the degree of coordination and the cities were divided into three categories：Mild disorder to develop urban economic system lag, mild imbalance in the development of real estate system lagging behind the development of urban eco- nomic downturn. ⑤By 2020, Wuhan was quality coordination, Zhengzhou was good coordination of, Changsha, Hefei was intermediate coordinate, Taivuan, and Nanchang was coordination of different grades.