长江经济带科技创新能耗的库兹涅茨曲线效应

The Kuznets Curve Effect on Energy Consumption by Science and Technology Innovation in Yangtze River Economic Zone

文章选取1998—2014年长江经济带11省市面板数据,通过构建指标体系综合衡量区域科技创新发展,检验其对能源消耗的"库兹涅茨曲线"影响效应。研究结果表明,全流域科技创新对能源消耗的库兹涅茨曲线影响效应不明显,整体呈现递增关系;区域层面,东部则呈现"N"型发展,存在能耗回弹效应,中区亦为"N"型波动上升,而西区存在库兹涅茨曲线倒"U"型趋势。文章进一步指出,各区都亟待采取针对性措施加强科技创新,争取早日越过拐点进入倒"U"型曲线下行段,实现科技创新对能源消耗的削减效能,同时要警惕能源消耗降低后的回弹效应。

This article focuses on the panel data of 11 provinces in the Yangtze River economic zone from 1998 to 2014, constructs the index system to reflect the development of regional scientific and technological innovation, and then examines the effect of Kuznets curve on the energy consumption. Results show that the effect of Knznets curve on the en- ergy consumption caused by science and technology innovation is not obvious alongside the whole river basin. At the re- gional level, there is the ＂N＂ type of development in the eastern part, with the effect of energy rebound, and it is with the fluctuating but rising ＂N＂ type in the middle region. When it comes to the western region, there is the inverted ＂U＂ type trend of Kuznets curve. This article further points out that all the districts in this region are supposed to take tar- geted measures to strengthen science and technology innovation, for an earlier cross-inflection point into the descending section of the inverted ＂U＂ curve, so as to achieve the reduction of energy efficiency by technological innovation, and al- so should keep alert to the rebound effect after it.