磴口县景观格局AES-LPI-CA模型演化模拟

Simulation of Landscape Pattern Evolution in Dengkou County Using AES-LPI-CA Model

以内蒙古巴彦淖尔市磴口县为研究区,在LPI-CA-Markov模型的基础上构建AES-LPI-CA模型,利用人工内分泌系统(AES)调整元胞自动机邻域中中心元胞的转移概率,并基于磴口县2000年与2007年景观格局数据对县域2014年景观格局进行模拟,将该模型模拟结果与LPI-CA-Markov模型、CA-Markov模型的模拟结果进行对比,结果显示3种模型模拟结果的KIA(Kappa index of agreement,以2014年实际景观分布为参照)依次为0.823 6、0.785 5、0.768 2,AES-LPI-CA模型显示了较高模拟精度。

Landscape pattern is closely related to many local ecological processes. Study on the future evolution of landscape pattern in the arid area of Northwest China is of great significance to local prevention and controlling of desertification and water and soil conservation. Therefore,taking Dengkou County,Bayannaoer City,Inner Mongolia as study area,a AES-LPI-CA model was built based on the LPI-CA-Markov model to simulate the landscape pattern of Dengkou County in 2014 by using the remote sensing image interpretation data of 2000 and 2007. Firstly,the landscape pattern transfer appropriate atlas was built and artificial endocrine system（ AES） was used to adjust the probabilities of the CA center cell transfer into different landscape types,the cellular automata neighborhood rule was taken into consideration,and the transfer direction of the center cell was settled. Then the un-transition probability（ UTP） map which was built based on the quantitative relation between landscape index（ LPI） and UTP was used to define the occurrence probability of the transfer,and the landscape transition probability matrix which was generated by using Markov model was used to make the final decision of transfer. The simulation result of the model was compared with the results of LPI-CA-Markov model and CA-Markov model. The Kappa index of agreement（ KIA） of simulation results of the three models were 0. 823 6,0. 785 5 and0. 768 2,respectively,AES-LPI-CA model had a higher simulation precision. The research result had referential values for the study on future evolution of landscape and formulation of ecological policy.