泛珠江—西江经济带经济差异时空演变及其驱动因素

Economic Differences Between Time and Space Evolution and Driving Factors about Pan Pearl River-West River Economic Belt

从人均GDP入手,利用空间自相关和冷热点分析对泛珠江—西江经济带2005—2014年经济差异的时空演变格局进行了探讨,通过泰尔指数分解和地理加权回归模型剖析了经济差异的驱动因素。选取人均社会消费品零售额、人均固定资产投资、人均财政支出和人均存款余额作为自变量表征消费水平、投资水平、政府实力和金融状况对经济差异的驱动机理。结果如下:(1)尽管十年间全局Moran's I有所降低,泛珠江—西江经济带的经济差异仍呈现出"西冷东热"的二元格局;(2)泰尔指数分解后的组内差距对区域经济整体差异的贡献度远高于组间差距,并且在近两年又有上升的势头;(3)投资水平对经济发展的影响持续走低,消费和政府实力日益成为影响经济增长的重要引擎。

Using Spatial Autocorrelation and Cold- hot Spot analysis on GDP of per capita, this research discusses the time-space evolution pattern of economic differences in Pan Pearl River-West River Economic Belt from 2005 to 2014 and then deeply analyzes its driving factors by employing decomposition of Theil Index and GWR. When performing GWR, total retail sales of consumer goods of per capita, fixed assets investment per capita, per capita financial expenditure and household deposits of per capita, on behalf of consumption level, investment level, government power and financial situation respectively, were chosen as independent variates to explore the formation mechanism of economic differences. Here are the results： 1）although Global Moran＇s I has slightly decreased in 10 years, economic differences of pan Pearl River- West River economic belt show a binary pattern of cold west- hot east; 2）contribution degree of gap in the group about economic differences outclasses gap among groups after decomposition of Theil Index and this trend has thel rising momentum in recent 2 years; 3）the influence of investment level of economic development is falling, consumption and government power are increasingly becoming important engines that effect economic development.