从贸易数据透视中国制造业升级

China's Trade Data and Manufacturing Industrial Upgrading

出口产品增加值率变化是观察制造业能力的有益视角。本文发现,中国在前金融危机阶段(2000-2006)、金融危机阶段(2007-2009)和后金融危机阶段(2010-2014)的出口增加值率年均增加分别为0.69、3和0.75个百分点,且出口增加值率上升几乎全部来自行业内效应。后危机阶段制造业升级快于前危机阶段。在控制了其他因素对出口增长值率的影响后,后危机阶段出口增加值率更快上升的合理解释是该阶段更快的产业升级。

Export is a mirror for observing a country's manufacturing capacity. This article uses China'svalue-added ratio of exports to analyze its manufacturing industrial upgrading. The ratioincreased by 0.69 percentage point, 3 percentage points and 0.75 percentage point,respectively, in the pre-crisis era(2000-06), during the crisis(2007-09), and in the post-crisis era(2010-14). The article finds that the increases almost all come from an intra-industry effect and the increase in the post-crisis period is faster than in the pre-crisis period.After controlling the effect of other factors on the value-added ratio of export, this articlecomes to the conclusion that the faster industrial upgrading can explain for the higher-rateincrease in the value added ratio of export in the post-crisis era.