日本银行的量化宽松“新政”：特征、背景及其面临的挑战

The New QE of Bank of Japan:Characteristics,Background and Challenges

2016年9月21日,日本银行开始实施新的量化宽松政策,将其操作目标由货币供给量转向收益率曲线(长期利率)控制。这是日本银行量化宽松政策的一次重大调整,也是安倍经济学实施以来其金融政策的一次新的探索。我们认为,此次日本银行的政策调整并非以往多次进行的"追加缓和",而是形成了一种新的政策框架,无异于一场量化宽松"新政",不论从货币金融政策的目标、特征或运行方式等方面都具有新的重要意义。本文着重分析了"新政"的主要内容、特征、出台的背景及其面临的挑战与前景。总起来看,由于日本经济原有的结构性问题仍然存在,且面临着更为复杂的国际政治经济形势,"新政"难以解决"旧政"所积累的矛盾与问题,但其金融政策框架的调整、与财政政策和政府"成长战略"协调的重视等趋向,在很大程度上意味着日本银行正在试图回归正常化的货币政策,并为其金融缓和政策探寻一个"出口"。

The Bank of Japan began to implement the new QE on September 21, 2016, marking a changeof its operation target from money supply to yield curve control. It is a major adjustment ofJapan's QE policy and also a new attempt to improve its financial policy after the launch ofAbenomics. The new move marks the establishment of a new policy framework instead of asupplement for previous policies. It bears new significance as it will have a major bearing onthe target, characteristics and operation mode of the country's monetary policy. This articleanalyzes the main contents, characteristics, background, and prospects of the new QE policy aswell as the challenges it faces. It argues that the structural problems of the Japanese economyhave not been solved and, as the international political and economic situation becomes morecomplicated, the new QE policy will fail to solve the existing problems. However, Japan'sadjustment of its financial policy framework and its coordination of fiscal policy and growthstrategy will help it normalize its monetary policy and find an outlet for its easy monetarypolicy.