基于结构方程模型的高寒生态脆弱区农户的气候变化感知研究——以甘南高原为例

Farmers' perception of climate change based on a structural equation model: a case study in the Gannan Plateau

农户对气候变化的感知是其适应行动选择的基础,弄清楚影响农户气候变化感知的关键因素,辨明农户气候变化感知的形成机制,对制定有效的适应策略至关重要。以甘南高原为研究区,基于539份入户调查数据,构建了路径模型,分析了影响农牧户气候变化感知的关键因素及其作用路径,结果发现:(1)客观适应能力对农牧户的气候变化风险感知及适应感知有显著的正向影响;(2)气候变化信息对农牧户的气候变化风险感知及适应感知有显著的正向影响,它还通过客观适应能力间接影响农牧户的气候变化感知;(3)社会话语信任度对农牧户的气候变化风险感知及适应感知有显著的正向影响,适应激励对农牧户的气候变化适应感知有显著的正向影响,但对风险感知产生显著的负向影响,同时,社会话语信任度及适应激励均通过气候变化信息及客观适应能力而间接影响农牧户的气候变化感知。最后,基于影响甘南高原农牧户气候变化感知的关键因素,提出了提高农牧户的气候变化认知水平及气候变化适应行为有效性的对策建议。

Global climate change has become an indisputable fact. The effect of climate change on humans has become increasingly serious, especially for the livelihood of farmers. The perception of climate change is the basis of adaptation. Determining the key factors that affect farmers＇ perception of climate change and clearing the formation mechanism of farmers＇ climate change perception are very important for selecting adaptation strategies. Using the Gannan Plateau as a case study, based on survey data from 539 households, we constructed the path model and analyzed farmers＇ adaptive capacity, climate change information, trust of social discourse, and the influence of adaptation incentives on farmers＇ risk perception and adaptive perception of climate change. The results showed that： （1） Farmers＇ adaptive capacity directly influenced farmers＇ climate change perception, and the stronger the farmers＇ adaptive capacity, the stronger their risk perception and adaptive perception; （2） Climate change information also directly influenced farmers＇ climate change perception, with farmers with greater climate change information having stronger risk and adaptive perception. In addition, climate change information also influenced farmers＇ adaptive capacity; （3） Trust of social discourse directly influenced farmers＇ climate change perception, with farmers that were more trusting of social discourse having stronger risk adaptive perception. Trust of social discourse also influenced farmers＇ climate change information and their adaptive capacity; and （4） Adaptation incentive directly influenced farmers＇ climate change perception, with greater adaptation incentive increasing farmers＇ adaptive perception and decreasing their risk perception. In addition, the adaptation incentive influenced farmers＇ climate change information and their adaptive capacity. In conclusion, based on the key factors that influence farmers＇ climate change perception, we developed policy recommendations in order to improve the accuracy of farmers＇ climate change perceptions and the effectiveness of their adaptive behavior.