基于CGE模型的碳减排政策的模拟分析

A SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF POLICIES TO CARBON EMISSION REDUCTION BASED ON CGE MODEL

CGE模型以一般均衡理论为基础,可以准确地模拟政策变动对整个经济系统的影响。通过构建包含环境模块的CGE模型,以江苏省为例,分析碳税作为一种碳减排政策对江苏省碳排放量、宏观经济和产业结构等方面的影响。结果表明:征收碳税可以降低碳排放量,改善环境,但是对于省内宏观经济的影响依据不同的税制而有所不同。建议平衡碳减排、经济增长等不同的目标,制定合理的税率水平,在减排的同时可以促进经济的健康持续增长。

CGE model is based on the theory of general equilibrium, which can accurately simulate the impact of policies change on the whole economy system. In order to probe the reduction method for the carbon dioxide emission, this paper established a CGE model which contained environment module. Taking Jiangsu province as an example, we analyzed the influence mechanism of carbon tax policy on GDP, macro-economy and industrial structure in Jiangsu. The results showed that levying carbon tax can reduce carbon dioxide emissions and improve the environment quality. But different tax systems had their unique effects on the province＇s economy. The target of carbon emission reduction and economy growth was suggested to be balanced, then a reasonable carbon tax rate was necessary.