基于马尔科夫转移矩阵的林业产业结构转化趋向研究——以黑龙江省为例

Research on Forest Industrial Structure Transformation Tendency Based on Markov Transfer Matrix——A Case Study of Heilongjiang Province

随着"天保工程"和国有林区商业性禁伐政策的全面实施,黑龙江省林业产业结构面临着全面转型和升级的新形势。在分析了近年来林业系统中涉林产业结构发展状况的基础上,文章利用马尔科夫转移矩阵定量测度林业产业结构转化程度和转化趋向。结果表明:黑龙江省林业产业结构整体转化趋向为"二、一、三"结构模式;林业第一产业内部结构转化趋向为经济林产品的种植和采集、林木的培养和种植;林业第二产业仍保持初级林产品加工为主体的发展模式;第三产业中森林旅游与休闲服务业将逐步成为林业主导产业。最后,在既定林业政策下,针对发现的若干问题给出相应的调整建议。

As the implementation of natural forest protection project and commercial logging ban policy of state- owned forest, the forest industrial structure adjustment is facing with a new comprehensive situation of transformation and upgrade in Heilongjiang province. By analyzing the development situation of the major industries and subordinate industries in Heilongjiang province while using the Markov transfer matrix to measure forest-related industrial structure conversion degree and future trend, the result shows that：forest industry structure conversion trends towards ＂ second, first, third ＂ in Heilongjiang province, structure conversion trends for forest products planting and gathering and trees cultivation and planting in primary forest industry, primary forest products processing is still the main development model in secondary forest industry, forest tourism and leisure services will gradually become the leading forest industry in tertiary forest industry. Finally, several suggestions are given to solve the problems under the established forest policies.