基于MDA模型的能源多样化情景分析——以黑龙江省为例

Energy Diversification Scenario Analysis Based on MDA Model——A Case of Hei Long-jiang Province

运用MDA模型和层次分析法,对黑龙江省2005~2014年相关数据进行实证分析,借助MATLAB软件进行模型仿真,研究了不同情景下的黑龙江省能源多样化最优组合。研究结果表明,不同情境下的能源多样化最优组合随反映能源系统不确定性的δ的取值的变化而变化:当δ在较低的取值区间时,不同情境下的能源多样化最优组合具有很大差异;当δ在高取值区间时,却具有共同的趋势。

By means of MDA model and AHP method, this paper carries on the empirical analysis based on relevant data in Hei Long-jiang province from 2005 to 2014, and uses MATLAB software to carry on further simulation to study the optimal portfolio of energy diversification under different scenarios. The results show that the optimal combination of energy diversifi- cation under different situations changes withS, which reflects the uncertainty of energy system. When δ is in a lower range, great difference exists in the different situations of the optimal portfolio diversification of energy; when δ is in a higher range, a common trend comes out.