2005-2014年新密市肺癌死亡率和烟草销售增长率相关研究分析

Study on association between lung cancer mortality and tobacco sales growth in Xinmi city, 2005-2014

目的开展肺癌死亡率和烟草销售增长率等相关研究,探讨烟草销售与肺癌死亡的因果关系,为制定控烟策略提供依据。方法 1.从新密市结核病防治所的人口死因登记中获取2005—2014年新密市肺癌死亡人口;2.从新密市统计局获取2005—2014年新密市人口资料;3.从新密市烟草部门获取2005—2014年新密市烟草销售额(承诺对销售额保密);4、从新密市物价部门获取2005—2014年新密市物价上涨率。结果 10年间新密市肺癌死亡总增长率为19.70%,年递增率为2.00%;10年间新密市烟草销售总增长率为218.40%,年递增率为12.30%,扣除新密市物价上涨率年均为4.20%,新密市烟草销售估算实际增长率为105.40%,年递增率为9.80%。结论新密市的研究表明,新密市烟草销售增长率和新密市肺癌死亡增长率呈正相关,新密市烟草销售年递增率每增加约5个百分点,新密市肺癌死亡则年均递增1个百分点。

Objective To study on association between lung cancer mortality and tobacco sales growth, explore the causal relationship between tobacco sales and lung cancer mortality, provide the basis for developing tobacco control strategies.Method 1. To get lung cancer deaths information between 2005 and 2014 from xinmi city TB control population death registration; 2. To get population information from statistics in xinmi city;3. To get tobacco sales information from tobacco sector （pledge confidentiality on sales）; 4. To get inflation information through price sector. Results 1. In ten years, the total death rate for lung cancer raised 19.7 % in xinmi city, with 2 % annual rate of increase; 2. The total tobacco sales grew by 218.4 % with 12.3 % annual rate of increase, excluding annual 4.2 % of price inflation. The estimated tobacco sales rose by 105.4 %, with 9.8% annual rate of increase. Conclusion The study in xinmi city showed that tobacco sales growth and lung cancer death rate is positively correlated, the lung cancer deaths increased of 1% with each additional 5 % of annual growth rate of tobacco sales in xinmi city.