长山核桃嫁接苗生长曲线的拟合分析

Fitting analysis of growth curves of grafted seedlings in Carya illinoensis

为了解长山核桃嫁接苗的生长规律,以1年生嫁接苗为研究对象,对其嫁接成活后穗粗、砧粗、枝粗和枝长的生长状况进行了观测,并通过回归分析构建了其生长模型。结果表明:(1)长山核桃1年生嫁接苗的穗粗、砧粗、枝长、枝粗等性状指标均呈快速升高后逐渐放缓生长的变化曲线,4—5月为新梢萌动期,5—8月为其生长盛期,8月以后其生长速度放缓直至停滞;(2)长山核桃嫁接苗的生长模型以平方和三次方曲线为主,其中穗粗和砧粗的生长模型均以三次方曲线生长模型拟合的为更优,其拟合精确度分别达到99.29%和97.76%,枝粗和枝长的生长模型均以平方曲线生长模型拟合的为更优,其拟合精确度分别达到98.82%和92.90%;模型拟合的精度较高,表明该生长模型可运用于生产实践中。

In order to know growth regularity of grafted seedlings in Carya illinoensis, using one-year-old grafted seedlings as research objects, scion diameter, stock diameter, branch diameter and branch length were determined, and the growth model was established by regression analysis. The results showed that： （1） The growth speed was from fast to slow, to stagnation finally, the stage from April to May was new shoots sprouting period, the stage from May to August was fast-growing season, and the stage after August was slow growth period, until stagnation. （2） Both the scion diameter and stock diameter growth models were cubic curve growth models, and fitting accuracies were 99.29% and 97.76%. Both branch diameter and branch length growth model were quadratic curve growth models, and fitting accuracies were 98.82% and 92.90%. The fitting models had high precision, and they could be applied to the practical production.