替代品进口对中国玉米消费市场的影响

The Impact of Imported Substitutes on Corn Consumption Markets in China

本文采用饲料原料有效能值比较方法,测算了2009~2015年进口玉米替代品对国内玉米的替代数量,并分析了玉米替代品价格红利与进口数量的关系。研究结果显示,玉米替代品价格红利与玉米替代品进口数量之间呈同向变动关系,玉米替代品价格红利是造成玉米替代品进口数量变动的最关键因素,也是近年来中国进口大量玉米替代品导致国内玉米过剩的最主要原因。当高粱、大麦、DDGS、小麦的价格红利保持在每公斤0.31元、0.14元、0.20元、0.17元时,玉米替代品进口量保持均衡状态,一旦出现更高或更低的价格红利,就会引起玉米替代品进口数量的变化。本文还利用2016年1~11月玉米价格出现新变化后的数据进一步验证了上述结论的可靠性。

This article adopts a comparative method of effective energy value of feedstuffto measure and calculate the quantity of corn substitutes for domestic corns from 2009 to 2015. Based on a simultaneous equations model, the study makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between price dividend and import quantity of corn substitutes. The results indicate that the change in price dividend of corn substitutes and in import quantity of corn substitute run to the same direction. Furthermore, price dividend of corn substitutes appears the most critical driving factor for the change in import quantity of corn substitutes. It becomes the most crucial reason why China has been importing a large number of corn substitutes in recent years, resulting in a surplus in domestic corn. Moreover, the results show that when the price dividend of sorghum, barley, DDGS and wheat reach 0.31 Yuan, 0.14 Yuan, 0.20 Yuan and 0.17 Yuan per kilogram, respectively, the import quantity of corn substitutes can maintain in an equilibrium state. That means the emergence of a higher or lower level of price dividend may result in a change in the import quantity of corn substitutes. To verify reliability of the conclusions, the study also conducts a check by using data from January to November 2016, dtLring which a new change in corn price is witnessed.