中国隐含能出口的结构优化研究

Structure optimization of China's embodied energy exports

中国隐含能的进出口核算已经得到广泛的研究关注,如何在中国可承受的代价范围内降低隐含能净出口规模还需要深入分析.本文基于投入产出分析和多目标规划原理,构建了隐含能进出口结构优化模型,在保障中国经济持续发展和就业稳定的前提下,研究如何通过进出口贸易结构优化来减少隐含能的净出口规模;并根据约束差异,设置了无约束和基准约束两类情景.研究结果显示:在无约束情景下,隐含能净出口的最大降低比例为19.99%,但同时造成的GDP损失率和失业率分别达到4.6%和9.01%;在基准约束情景下,隐含能净出口减少4.41%,造成的GDP损失率和失业率分别为0.47%和4.19%.因此,在当前中国经济结构下,仅通过进出口贸易结构的调整,很难从根本上改变中国隐含能净出口的现状.

The accounting of embodied energy in China＇s international trade has attracted a lot of attention in recent years. But how to reduce China＇s embodied export scale within the bearable costs requires indepth analysis. This research analyse how to decrease the net export of embodied energy while keeping the least loss of China＇s GDP and unemployment rate by optimizing the embodied energy export-import structure though the combined input-output model and multi-objective programming model. According to the different constraints, designed two different scenarios. The unconstrained scenario optimization result shows that the export of embodied energy decreased by 19.99%. But at the same time resulting in 9.01% unemployment rate increase and 4.6% loss of China＇s GDP. By contrast, in reasonable constraint scenario, the export of embodied energy decreased by 4.41%, resulting in 4.19% unemployment rate increase and 0.47% loss of China＇s GDP. Therefore, under the current China＇s economic structure, it is difficult to fundamentally change the status of net exporter of embodied energy simply by changing the international import and export trade.