竞合视角下研发网络关系风险相继传播模型构建与仿真

Relational risk cascading propagation modeling and simulation in R&D network based co-opetition perspective

在考虑研发网络企业间同时存在合作关系与竞争关系的基础上,引入风险恢复因子,从节点企业风险负荷的定义、阈值的确定,失效后如何影响邻居节点企业三个方面构建了R&D网络的风险传播模型,并进行了仿真.结果表明:在竞合的R&D网络中,关系风险可以在很短的时间内快速完成传播,三类关系风险中,机会主义风险最易发生影响范围更广泛;竞争企业占R&D网络规模的比例越大,竞争程度越激烈,关系风险的传播速度越快和影响范围越大;关系风险传播过程中,合作程度与竞争程度对风险传播都具有重要的影响,且合作程度比竞争程度对风险传播的影响更大;研发网络存在最佳的风险恢复水平,使得风险不再发生相继传播.该研究成果对于R&D网络抗风险能力的提高具有重要意义.

Considering the eo-opetition relationship in research and development （R＆D） network, the paper established the dynamic model of risk propagation, which includes three aspects： the definition of each enterprise risk load, determination of each enterprise＇s capacity of resisting risk and how failed enterprises nodes effect on the neighboring nodes. Risk recovery factor is introduced into the model. The simulation results show the relationship risk propagation process in co-operation R＆D networks can be over rapidly in a very short time; in the three types of risk, opportunism risk propagates fastest and affects widest. The proportion of the competitive enterprises and the competition level have positive effects on the propagation speed and scope of relational risk; the level of corporation and competition both have significant impacts on relationship risk propagation, however, the corporation level has greater influence than the competition level; there exists optimal risk recovery level which can stop the risk from propagation in R＆D network. This research has an important enlightenment for improving the capability of resisting risk and keeping the sustainable development of R＆D network.