系统动力学演化博弈流率基本人树模型的构建及应用——基于生猪规模养殖生态能源系统稳定性的反馈仿真

Construction and application of system dynamics evolutionary game rate variable based in-tree model——Basing on feedback simulation of scale pig breeding ecological energy system stability

规模养殖生态能源系统是猪粪尿资源化综合开发利用防治环境污染的规模养殖和沼气能源综合开发利用系统.针对该系统及其主体出现的影响系统区域环境"超载"、沼气能源利用率低和沼气工程建管不协调的这些系统稳定性新问题;课题紧扣问题的系统结构复杂和系统主导主体的行为复杂这两个特性,结合问题多学科交叉的特点;利用研究系统结构复杂性的系统动力方法和研究系统行为动态复杂性的博弈分析方法,在分别进行系统反馈分析和系统博弈合作机理分析的基础上;抓住演化博弈动态复制系统和系统动力学流位流率系的动态复制这一共同特性,开展由演化博弈动态复制系统构建系统动力学流率基本入树模型的理论集成研究,实现对具有系统结构复杂性和系统行为博弈复杂性的系统稳定性问题的综合研究.得出:任意的演化博弈动态复制系统均能建立以流率变量为根,以流位变量为尾,且流位变量和外生变量直接控制流率变量的流率基本入树模型.进而构建了系统动力学演化博弈流率基本入树模型,并对江西德邦生猪规模养殖生态能源系统稳定性进行了反馈调控仿真研究,得出了系统稳定性运行的调控对策,调控对策为国家规模养殖环境污染防治及国家沼气工程战略制定提供决策依据.

Scale breeding ecological energy system is a comprehensive system, providing the environment contamination, in which the pig waste is used as resource, and in which biogas source is developed and used comprehensively. In view of the system and these new system stability problems that the system regional environment being overloaded, the low utility ratio of the biogas source and the biogas projects construction and administration out of line. Having holding closely the two characters that the complication of construction and the complication of behavior by the main body of system, combining with the feature of interdisciplinary, research used the system dynamics studying complex system construction and the game studying complex system behavior to study system complex construction feedback and system game cooperation mechanism respectively. Then the same dynamic replication feature of the evolutionary game dynamic replication system and system dynamics level and rate system will be seized to study integrated theory of rate variable based in-tree model being established from evolutionary game replication system, by which the complex system construction and complex system behavior game was researched synthetically. Results show that any evolutionary game replication system can be transformed to rate variable based in- tree model, in which rate variable is root, level variable being tail, and level variable and external variable control rate variable directly. And then system dynamics evolutionary game rate variable based in-tree model was established to simulate Jiangxi Debang scale pig breeding ecological energy system stability. The manage measures was obtain, which will provide the decision basis of formulating policies providing environment contamination of scale breeding and for the biogas project strategy of our country.