农业产业结构优化调整与农业经济增长关系研究——以湖南省为例

Research on the relationship between agricultural industrial structure optimization and agricultural economic growth——case of Hunan province

文章首次从大农业的角度对农业三次产业结构优化与农业经济增长的关系进行实证研究,以湖南省2003—2012年的数据为研究样本,运用Eviews统计软件进行单位根检验和协整检验并进行格兰杰(Granger)因果关系检验,结果显示:(1)农业产业结构优化能够有效推动农业经济的发展,两者具有明显的正相关关系,且农业产业结构值平均每增长1%带来的是农业经济总量4.72%的正向变动;(2)通过格兰杰因果检验发现,农业经济的增长能够带动农业产业结构优化,但带动效果不显著;(3)农业产业结构优化与农业经济的发展存在一定的双向Granger因果关系,二者之间存在长期稳定的关系。

To give an empirical analysis on the relationship between agricultural industrial structure optimization and agricultural economic growth, this study took Hunan province as an example in 2003-2012 from the view of ＂Big Agriculture ＂ . After the Unit Root Test Co-integration test and Granger causality test with Eviews Statistic Software this paper drew the following conclusion： （1） the agricultural industrial structure optimization and agricultural economic growth has a significantly positive correlation and it is to say that agricultural industrial structure optimization obviously promotes the growth of the agricultural economy. Per percentage＇ s growth of agricultural industrial structure optimization can brought 4.72% growth of the total agricultural economy; （2） the growth of the agricultural economy can play a positive role in promoting agriculture industrial structure optimization, however, the effect is not significant; （3） the optimization of agricultural industrial structure and the growth of agricultural economy has a certain two-way Granger causality and the relationship is long-term stable.