牡丹花期不同预测方法初探及比较

The Peony Flowering of Different Prediction Methods Reviewed and Compared

为能准确预测牡丹花期,更好地为牡丹文化节服务,对王城公园牡丹观赏区的早花牡丹品种‘朱砂垒’及春季开花植物的物候期、初花期的调查记录,利用SPSS19.0分析软件及Excel统计软件,分析牡丹的初花期与自身各物候期的相关性及与春花植物初花期的相关性,并对相关性显著的项目进行多元线性回归分析,建立牡丹花期预测数学模型,比较两个数学模型的准确性,结果表明‘朱砂垒’各物候期中的发芽期、立蕾期、风铃期与初花期的相关性极显著,建立预测数学模型为Y=58.649+0.149X_1+0.142X_2+0.274X_3;植物中樱桃、玉兰及早樱的初花期与‘朱砂垒’初花期相关性显著,建立牡丹花期预测数学模型为Y=-532.075+12.693X_1-4.707X_2+0.621X_3,依据以上两个数学模型可以初步对牡丹初花时间进行较准确的预测。

（Purpose）To more accurately forecast the peony flowering period and better serve the Peony Cultural Festival.（Researeh）By tracking and accurately recording the phenological period for many years,combining the first bloom time of same period spring bloom plants, using SPSS19.0 ana/ytical too/and Excel statistical tool,analyzing the relativity of the first bloom time of ＇Zhusha Lei＇ and its phenological period and the relativity of the first, bloom time of ＇Zhusha Lei＇ and same period spring bloom plants,conducting multivariable linear regression analysis for the variables highly related with ＇Zhusha Lei＇ first bloomsome period,establishing a mathematical forecasting model,and comparing the accuracy of two mathematical models,（Result）the results indicate：the relativity of the budding time,Bud stage, Campanula period,and first bloom time of ＇Zhusha Lei＇is highly notatfle,shown with mathelnatical forecasting model Y=58.649＋0.149X,＋0.142X2＋0.274X1;the relativity of first blooming plants like cherry is highly notable,shown with mathematical forecasting model Y=-532.075＋12.693X1-4.707X2,＋0.621X1,（Conclusion）hence we can make preliminat3, but relatively accurate forecast for the Peony first bloom time.