华清池景区旅游活动周末效应的测定

The Weekend Effect Determination of Tourism Activities in Huaqing Hot Spring Scenic Spot

旅游活动具有休闲度假的性质,受作息制度和假日安排的影响.周末效应是指城市居民更倾向选择周末旅游,致使景区客流量周内变化双休日最高,呈现远高于普通工作日的现象,是日历效应中频率最高且稳定的现象.以西安华清池景区为案例,在日历效应分析的基础上,分离出景区客流量变化的周末效应,并从现象观察、效应测定、几率分布和形成原因等方面进行分析测定.结果发现,景区旅游确实存在显著的周末效应,周末客流量高出工作日的30%~60%,该现象的揭示可为景区做好旅游接待提供参考.

The concept of the ＂weekend effect＂ was firstly discovered in the stock market. Subsequently, some scholars have pointed out that this effect also existed in the urban environment and health care, but it hasn＇t been put forward on the tourism. Because tourism activities were affected by the rest schedule and holiday arrangement, we thought there should be also weekend effect. Weekend effect in the tourism referred to that the urban residents were more likely to travel over the weekends, resulting in the tourists of scenic spots on the weekends were far higher than the ordinary weekdays. This effect was not only the most frequent, but also most stable in all calender effects. Much more sophisticated daily tourists data of a scenic spot were needed if we wanted to study its weekend effect, and Huaqing Hot Spring Scenic Spot was one of very few spots that keep records such daily data in Xi＇an. Therefore, this paper collected its two years＇ daily tourists data. Firstly, the weekend effect was separated from the calendar effects and four line graphs were made based on selecting six ordinary weeks from each season. Then, the average daily tourists of seven days were calculated and the weekends＇ were compared with weekdays＇ to measure the size of the mean value of weekend effect. At last, the rolling analysis method was used to gather the frequency distribution of Saturday＇s and Sunday＇s weekend effect. Besides, the stability of the weekend effect was analyzed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. The final result showed that there was a significant weekend effect and the tourists of weekends were 30 %-60% higher than the weekdays in Huaqing Hot Spring Scenic Spot. The revelation could help us understand the formation and rules of weekend effect, know the differences and relations among tourism, stock market, environment and health care. What＇s more, it provided a reference for the scenic spots to do a good job in tourism reception.