基于ELES模型的中美消费支出结构比较与启示

Comparison and Revelation of Consumer Spending Structure Between China and the United States Based on ELES Model

比较中美两国消费支出结构对于中国如何调整消费结构、扩大国内消费需求具有较强的借鉴意义。基于2006—2013年中、美居民消费支出、可支配收入的数据,通过扩展的线性支出系统模型(ELES)模型估算出两国各类消费项目的边际消费倾向、需求收入弹性和价格弹性。结果表明,美国居民边际消费倾向明显高于中国,且中国家庭设备及用品和交通通信的未来增长空间较大,而医疗仍是美国未来的消费热点。在此基础上,提出了关于中国如何提高居民消费倾向、推动供给侧改革、引导消费回流的几点启示。

m Comparing the structure of consumption expenditure between China and the United States has a strong reference significance for China to adjust the consumption structure and expand the domestic consumption demand. Based on the data of consumption expenditure and disposable income of China and the United States in 2006-2013, the marginal propensity to consume, demand elasticity of income and price of various consumption items of the two countries were estimated by the extended linear expenditure system model （ ELES）. The results show that America＇s residents＇ marginal propensity to consume is significantly higher than China, and future growth space ofhousehold facilities and articles as well as transportation and communication of china will be larger than that of others, while the medical treatment will still be the hot spot of consumption in the United States. On the basis of this, some enlightenments on how to improve the propensity to consume, reform the supply side and guide the consumption＇s backflow are given.