空间站运营物资需求预测建模与仿真研究

Research on Modeling and Simulation of Material Demand Forecast in Space Station Operation

针对空间站物资消耗多样化特点,建立了空间站离散类物资和连续类物资的消耗模型,从多个角度分析了现有预测方法在空间站物资补给预测中的适用性,并基于"离散与连续类物资相区别"的研究思路,对空间站连续类物资消耗预测方法进行理论分析和仿真验证。以航天食品为例,分析其在空间站长期运营期间的消耗特点及规律,采用时间序列、因果回归等预测算法进行仿真对照分析,提出了与在轨任务相关联的空间站连续类物资需求预测方法。研究成果可为空间站运营物资补给预测深入研究提供参考。

The material consumption in the space station is various,In this papers the consumption models for discrete consuming supplies and continuous consuming supplies in space station were established. The applicability of the existing prediction theory in the consumption demand forecast of the space station was analyzed from different aspects. The demand forecast methods for continuous consuming supplies were particularly analyzed and verified with the consideration of 'distinguishing the discrete consuming and continuous consuming supplies'. The on-orbit space food consumption during long-term space station operation period was analyzed,and different forecast algorithms such as the time series and regression methods were simulated and compared. In the end,the demand forecast method for continuous consuming supplies related to on-orbit activities was summarized. The results may provide a reference for further study of supply demand forecast in space station operation.