高校扩招后我国大学学历溢价的波动研究——基于2003—2013年CGSS数据的分析

Research on the Fluctuations of the College Premium after the Tertiary Scale Expanding in China——Based on the Analyzing of CGSS Data from 2003 to 2013

本文使用2003—2013年的中国综合社会调查数据,估计了我国1999年高等教育扩展后的第一届大学毕业生进入劳动力市场后的大学学历溢价变动趋势。在控制相关影响因素与个人能力偏误之后,明瑟方程模型的检验结果显示:2003年—2013年期间我国大学学历劳动者的平均年收入水平相对于高中学历劳动者要高出32.4%到98.8%之间。我国大学学历溢价在高等教育扩展之后,并没有出现单调递减的线性下降,而是在总体上呈现增长与降低相间变化的波动趋势。不同收入分位群组的大学学历溢价保持着与总体基本相同的波动趋势,且收入水平分位数越高,大学学历溢价反而越低。同时,大学学历溢价的显著存在,证明了选择上大学、接受高等教育是一项相对收益丰厚的人力资本投资行为。

This paper uses the CGSS database from 2003 to 2013 to estimate the fluctuations of the college premium after the tertiary education expanding in 1999. With controlling the related influencing factors and correcting the personal ability bias, the testing results of Mincer model indicate that the average in- come of college degree workers is some 32.4 to 98. 8 percents higher than that of high school degree workers. And the college premium does not reduce continually but fluctuates after the tertiary education expanding. The changing tendency of different income level groups is similar to the general fluctuations, and the college premium decreases with the increasing of income level. Thus, the significant existing of the college premium demonstrates that it is a profitable human capital investment choice to receive tertiary education.