“二孩政策”与学区房溢价——基于人口政策变化的政策评价分析

The “Two-child” Policy and the Premium of School District Housing:Policy Evaluation Analysis Based on the Change of Population Policy

我国人口生育政策的调整是政府在我国经济进入中高速发展阶段之后做出的重大决策,对社会经济各个方面会产生重要影响。文章着眼于政策调整、家庭规划和政府公共产品需求,以上海市住房数据为基础,分析了我国"二孩政策"对现阶段学区房价格的影响。文章以特征回归模型为基础,讨论了人口政策变化对学区房价格的影响。研究发现,在人口新政出台后,与临近的普通住房相比,学区房的相对溢价程度更高。文章进一步采用固定边界法,发现优质学区房的溢价涨幅(约为8.6%-11.8%)高于普通学区房(约为2.49%-3.97%),充分说明在人口政策调整后,我国部分家庭对优质教育更加渴望。文章采用匹配回归进行了稳健性检验,仍支持上述研究结论。

The adjustment to China＇s population policy is a critical decision made by the governments in the period of rapid economic development in China, and has a signifi- cant impact on all aspects of social and economic development. This paper focuses on policy adjustment, family planning and government demand for public products,and analyzes the effect of two-child policy on current school district housing based on Shanghai housing data.Based on Hedonic regression model, it discusses the effect of changes in population policy on the prices of school district housing with additional education attribute. It finds that： after the introduction of new population policy, compared with neighbor ordinary housing, relative premium level of school district housing is higher. It further employs fixed boundary method to conclude that the premium increase in high-quality school dis- trict housing （by about 8.6% 11.8%） is higher than the one in ordinary school district housing （by about 2.49%--3.97%）, fully showing after the adjustment to population poli- cy, partial families in China more desire high-quality education. It uses matching regres sion to make a robustness test and still supports the conclusions above.