城镇化一定能促进寿险业发展吗?——基于人类发展指数的异质性分析

Must Urbanization Promote the Development of Life Insurance Industry? Heterogeneity Analysis Based on Human Development Index

文章基于未来50年全球城镇化人口增长中95%将来自发展中国家而由此存在巨大人力资本风险保障需求的分析背景,根据Campbell(1980)经典寿险需求的扩展模型,区分了两类不同模式的城镇化类型——提供配套设施等的Ⅰ型城镇化和仅转移人口而无配套设施等的Ⅱ型城镇化,利用151个国家1990-2012年的面板数据实证检验了只有促进人的发展的Ⅰ型城镇化才能促进寿险需求的核心假设。研究表明:(1)在全球水平上城镇化对寿险深度的促进作用为2.3%;(2)促进人的发展的Ⅰ型城镇化对寿险深度的提高作用比未能促进人的发展的Ⅱ型城镇化高出31.2%,后者对寿险深度的影响甚至为负;(3)中介机制检验证实,以人为本的城镇化通过促进人力资本积累推动寿险业发展;(4)寿险业在城镇化过程的增长呈现S形规律,存在一个加速发展的黄金阶段。基于文章的研究结论,建议发展中国家在城镇化过程中加大人力资本的开发力度,同时把握寿险业发展的黄金时机,提供充足的人力资本风险保障。

Based on the analytical background that 95% of the increase in global ur- banization population growth in future 50 years and resulting huge demand for human cap- ital risk guarantee, this paper uses an extended model of classical life insurance demand proposed by Campbell＇s （1980） model, to classify urbanization types into two different modes, namely human-development enabling urbanization providing supporting facilities vs. human-development disenabling urbanization. And using the panel data of 151 countries from 1990 to 2012, it empirically tests the core hypothesis that only human-development enabling urbanization promotes life insurance demand, and makes a solution to inconsis- tent evidence of the promotion role of urbanization in life insurance demand in existing lit- erature. It arrives at the conclusions as follows, firstly, 1 percent increase in unclassified urbanization results in 2.3 percent increase in life-insurance depth globally; secondly, the promotion role of human-development enabling urbanization in life-insurance depth has an increase of 31.2% over the one of human-development disenabling urbanization, while hu- man-development disenabling urbanization even has a negative impact on life-insurance depth;thirdly, the test of mediating mechanism confirms that people-oriented urbanization advances the development of life insurance industry by promoting the accumulation of hu- man capital; finally,in the process of urbanization, the growth of life insurance industry presents a S-shape rule, showing a golden state with accelerated development. Based on the research conclusions, it suggests that developing countries enlarge the development of hu- man capital in the urbanization process, and seize the golden stage of the development of life insurance industry to provide adequate human capital risk guarantee.