基于前景理论的多阶段直觉模糊数决策方法

Multi-stage Intuitionistic Fuzzy Number Decision-making Methods Based on Prospect Theory

针对航空部队事故预警方案选择中指标权重未知、指标值为直觉模糊数的多阶段直觉模糊数决策问题,考虑决策者风险偏好引起的指标值的动态变化,提出了一种基于前景理论的多阶段决策方法。该方法根据各阶段期望均值可能度的比较确定阶段变化特征,参考直觉模糊数距离公式设置动态参考点,然后集结收益和损失以整体前景值最大化为目标建立规划模型得到指标的动态权重,计算方案综合前景值并排序。最后通过MATLAB仿真实例验证了该方法的有效性。

For the multi-stage intuitionistic fuzzy number decision-making problem of aviation troops accident early warnings, in which the information on criteria weights are unknown and the criteria value of alternatives are in the form of intuitionistic fuzzy number, considering the dynamic varying by the risk preference of decision makers, a method of multi-stage decision-making based on the prospect theory is proposed. Comparing the multi-stage expected values＇ possibility degree the dynamic characteristic of every stage is obtained. Installing dynamic reference point according to distance expression, concentrating the lose and get, enacting a programming model the criteria dynamic weights are attained and the order of alternatives can be listed by calculating the integrated prospect values. Finally, a MATLAB simulation example is illustrated to examine the effectiveness of the method.