新设国家经济开发区需水预测——以贵安新区为例

Water resources demands in new national economic development zone——Taking Gui'an new district for example

贵安新区是国务院正式批复设立的第8个国家级新区,其具有新的规划范围、新的发展模式、新的城市功能等特点,用水矛盾突出,需水预测复杂.采用多种预测方法对新区需水量进行预测,主要结论如下:1)需水定额采用多种模型预测,择优而定;2)经济产值采用灰色模型,人口采用Logistic模型,并设置了3种人口增长模式,结果较为合理;3)2020年农业、非农、居民需水、生态需水定额分别为173.12m^3/万元、12.55m^3/万元、132.65L/(人·d)、2.0L/(m2·d),2030年分别为52.14m^3/万元、5.20m^3/万元、135.80L/(人·d)、2.0L/(m2·d).该研究不仅为新区的水资源规划和用水安全提供设计依据和安全保障,而且为其他同类城市需水预测提供借鉴与参考.

Gui＇ an new district as the eighth state-level new district that the State Council formally approved and established in 2014 has been made many new demands, a new planning area, a new developmental mode, a new urban function for instance. However, new district water resources has some problems of the poor water resources per capita share, the hard water resources development and utilization, the complex structure of water that aggravate water conflicts, therefore the paper calculates the water demands of agriculture, non-agriculture, residents and ecology used by quota analysis method. The main conclusions are as follows： 1） The water quota of agriculture, non-agriculture, residents are predicted by various models; and then it is selected by the optimization. 2） Economic outputs of agriculture, non-agriculture are forecasted by gray model; population contained three growth modes is predicted by Logistic model. Hypothetical scenarios and the results are reasonable. 3） Water quotas of agriculture, non-agriculture, residents, economical water demand are respectively 173.12 m^3 per million, 12.55 ma per million, 132.65 L per day everybody, 2.0 L per m^2 everyday in 2020; and 52.14 m^3 per million, 5.20 m^3 per million, 135.80 L per day everybody, 2.0 L per m^2 everyday in 2030. The research results provide not only the design basis and security of water resources planning and water security for the new district, but also the reference of other similar urban water demand forecast.