基于拟合优度检验-贝叶斯理论的生态混凝土碳化深度概率模型研究

Study of Ecological Concrete Carbonation Depth Probabilistic Model Based on Fit Goodness Test-Bayesian Theory

针对生态混凝土碳化深度具有随机性的特点,提出基于拟合优度检验和贝叶斯理论相结合的方法进行生态混凝土碳化深度概率模型分析。采用拟合优度检验识别生态混凝土碳化服从的最优概率分布类型,采用贝叶斯理论对最优概率分布类型中的参数进行估计,在此基础上进行碳化可靠度分析。通过3组检测数据来说明基于拟合优度检验和贝叶斯理论相结合的方法在生态混凝土碳化深度概率模型研究和碳化可靠度分析中的应用过程。结果表明:与传统方法相比,基于拟合优度检验和贝叶斯理论相结合的方法进行生态混凝土碳化深度概率模型和碳化可靠度分析更加符合工程实际,便于工程应用。

Aiming at the randomness characteristic of ecological concrete carbonation depth, the article puts forward the combined method of fit goodness test and Bayesian theory to carry out the model analysis of ecological concrete carbonation depth probability. The fit goodness test is used to identify the optimal probability distribution pattern of ecological concrete carbonation submission. The Bayesian theory is used to estimate the parameters in the optimal probability distribution pattern. On this basis, the carbonation reliability is analyzed. Three groups of test data illustrate the application process of the combined method of fit goodness test and Bayesian theory in the study of ecological concrete carbonation depth probabilistic model and the analysis of carbonation reliability. The results show that this combined method to carry out the ecological concrete carbonation depth probabilistic model and carbonation reliability analysis is more conformed to the engineering practices and more convenient for the engineering application by comparing with the traditional method.