城镇化、老龄化背景下的民生财政与居民消费

The Effect of Fiscal Livelihood Expenditure on Household Consumption under the Background of Urbanization and Population Aging

基于对中国消费者行为特征的分析,建立了研究城镇化、人口老龄化作用下民生财政支出影响居民消费的理论框架。运用2006—2014年中国大陆31个省、市、自治区的面板数据,使用动态广义矩估计方法进行了实证分析。实证检验结果表明:民生财政支出对居民消费产生了负向的影响,民生财政支出的增加分别导致了人均实际消费支出和居民消费率的下降。从需求层次提升和预期不确定性增加两个方面对这一结果进行了解释,并提出只有当民生财政支出提高覆盖程度到足以降低消费者不确定性预期并且能够匹配消费层次提升时,才可以对居民消费产生正向的影响。

This paper is aimed to explore the relationship between fiscal livelihood expenditure and household consumption. Based on the analysis of Chinese consumers＇ characteristics,this paper establishes a theoretical model to analyze the effect of fiscal livelihood expenditure on household consumption under the background of urbanization and population aging. This paper also performs a regression analysis of the provincial level panel data from 2006 to 2014,employing the dynamic Generalized Method of Moments（GMM）. The empirical result reveals a negative influence,which means that the increase of fiscal livelihood expenditure has led to decrease of both per capita actual consumption expenditure and household consumption rate. The results are explained in terms of improvement of consumption hierarchy and increasing uncertainty expectation. Accordingly,this paper puts forward that only when financial livelihood expenditure improves coverage to reduce uncertainty expectation,and matches consumption enhancement,should the fiscal livelihood expenditure have a positive impact on household consumption.