特大城市老龄群体危机社会机理建模研究——以北京市典型案例为例

Social Mechanism of Aging Population Crisis within Megacities in China——A Case Study of Beijing Cities

在中国社会老龄化进程中,老年人的基本需求没有得到满足,进而形成老龄群体危机。为分析特大城市老龄群体危机的社会机理,以北京市为典型案例作深入分析。通过文件频次法和文献分析法,提出老龄群体危机社会机理模型。通过专家咨询法,完善北京市老龄群体危机社会机理模型。通过调查问卷收集离散型和连续型数据信息,采用R软件建立结构方程模型,使用二步最小二乘法(DWLS法)对离散数据进行模型估计,使用极大似然法(ML法)对连续数据进行模型估计。结果表明,社会环境、社会治理对老龄群体危机影响明显,且社会环境比社会治理影响作用重大,社会服务、社会经济对老龄群体危机影响不明显。经济是解决老龄工作问题的基础,服务是解决老龄工作问题的保障,这两方面已经得到较大改善,因此老龄群体更关注社会环境和社会治理方面。

In the process of China＇s aging society, older people＇s basic needs are not met, then formed the ageing population crisis.In order to analyze the social mechanism of urban aged population crises, for in-depth analysis of typical cases in Beijing. Through document frequency method and literature of induction, ageing population crisis mechanism of social model is proposed. Through expert consultation method, improve the aging population crisis social mechanism model of Beijing. Through the questionnaire collection of discrete and continuous data information, verify the distribution characteristics of the two data, the use of R software to build structural equation model. The two-step least squares（DWLS）method is used to estimate the discrete data. The maximum likelihood method（ML method）is used to estimate the continuous data. The results show that social environment and social governance effect ageing population crisis obviously, effect of social environment than social governance, and social services, social economic is not obvious. The economy is the basis for solving the problem of aging work and the service is the guarantee to solve the problem of aging work. These two aspects have been greatly improved, so the old age groups pay more attention to social environment and social governance.