1981—2013年湖南省蒸发量的时空变化特征

Spatio-temporal Change of Evaporation: Hunan, 1981-2013

为揭示湖南省蒸发量的时空分布特征,基于1981—2013年的日蒸发量观测值,采用气候倾向率、滑动平均、累积距平、Mann-Kendall检验和R/S分析法,对湖南省年、季蒸发量进行了时空变化分析、突变检验及变化趋势预测。结果表明:(1)33年来湖南省年蒸发量总体呈波动上升趋势,春、秋、冬三季呈现出相似的增减趋势并决定了年蒸发量的变化趋势;(2)湖南省蒸发量主要集中于夏季,年代际变化具有明显的区域性;年、季节平均蒸发量的空间分布呈现由东南向西北递减的格局;(3)M-K突变分析表明,除夏季之外,春、秋、冬三季和年蒸发量整体均呈上升趋势,且突变点出现在2000年的春季和1983年的秋季;(4)年蒸发量整体上呈现较强的正持续性,四季中春季正持续性最为显著。

The paper aims to reveal the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of evaporation in Hunan. Based on daily evaporation data observed from 1981 to 2013, the spatio-temporal change, mutation test and trends of annual and seasonal evaporation were discussed by using the linear regression, moving arithmetic average, cumulative anomaly, Mann-Kendall test and R_/S analysis. The results showed that： （1） the annual evaporation presented a fluctuant increasing tendency in the 33 years, the evaporation change trends of spring, autumn and winter were similar and determined the change of the annual evaporation; （2） the evaporation in Hunan mainly concentrated in summer, in terms of the spatial distribution, the change of decadal evaporation had obvious regional characteristics; the annual and seasonal evaporation showed a decreasing tendency from the southeast to the northwest; （3） the results of M-K mutation analysis revealed that： spring, autumn, winter and annual evaporation presented an increasing tendency except summer, the abrupt change of evaporation occurred in spring, 2000 and autumn, 1983, respectively; （4） the results of R./S analysis showed that the annual evaporation presented a strongly positive persistence, and the evaporation in spring was most significant.