列控运营风险评价的三维矩阵模型研究

Three-dimensional Matrix Model for Risk Assessment on Operation of Chinese Train Control System

在参考现有风险矩阵的基础上,提出三维风险矩阵评价方法。首先,分析现有风险矩阵评价方法的不足,从分析风险本质属性的角度提出风险可预测度。其次,给出三维风险矩阵模型,分别给出风险严重度、风险发生频率、风险可预测度和风险评价结果的评价等级表。接着提出1种基于区间数判断矩阵信息的权重调整和计算方法来计算专家权重和风险因素权重。然后采用改进的雷达图法来集成风险因素,得到三维风险矩阵色谱图。最后,通过实例说明三维风险矩阵评价方法的合理性和有效性。该方法为我国列控运营的风险评价提供了1种新的思路和手段。

A three-dimensional matrix of risk assessment method was proposed based on the existing risk matrix. Firstly, the deficiency of the existing risk matrix evaluation method was analyzed and the predictable degree of risk factors was put forward from the perspective of the analysis of risk essential attributes. Secondly, the three-dimensional risk matrix model was given and the evaluation rating of risk severity, occurrence frequency, predictable degree and risk evaluation results was given. Next, a weight adjustment and calculation method based on interval number judgment matrix information was proposed, to calculate the weights of expert and risk factors. Then a three-dimensional risk matrix chromatogram was obtained using an improved radar chart method to integrate the risk factors. Finally, an example was given to show the rationality and effectiveness of the three-dimensional matrix of risk evaluation method. The method provides a new way of thinking and means for the risk assessment of train control in China.