四川省人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展时空演变研究

Research on the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Coordinated Development between Population Urbanization and Land Urbanization in Sichuan Province

以四川省作为研究区域,建立人口城镇化与土地城镇化质量指标体系,采用变异系数法和耦合协调发展度模型对四川省及各地市2003—2014年人口城镇化与土地城镇化指数及二者的协调发展度进行测度,并结合空间分析方法对各地市的协调发展度进行了分析.结果表明:四川省的协调发展度同人口城镇化与土地城镇化呈阶段式增长,2014年总体上达到高度协调发展水平;各地市人口城镇化与土地城镇化整体上呈上升趋势并呈现出了不同的发展类型,其中人口城镇化发展呈现出了高速增长型、波动起伏型等4种类型,土地城镇化发展呈现出了高快高、高慢低等6种类型;在空间视角下四川省各地市的人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展度总体上呈上升趋势,各地市协调发展度平均水平由2003年的0.36增长至2014年的0.58,并且所有城市在2014年都已达到中等磨合协调发展及其以上水平;不同区域间的人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展度"区域同质化"带动作用显著且受地区社会经济发展状况影响较大;2007年为四川省各地市协调发展速度的分界点.

Taking Sichuan province as a research area,the paper established the evaluation index systems of population urbanization and land urbanization respectively,then it measured the coordinated development degree of Sichuan province and 18 cities of Sichuan province during 2003-2014 by variance coefficient approach and coupled coordination development degree model,and it analyzed the coordinated development degree by using spatial analysis method.The results show that the coordinated development degree of Sichuan province with population urbanization and land urbanization stage increased,overall highly coordinated development level in 2014;population urbanization and the 18 cities Land urbanization as a whole is on the rise,and presented the different types,including population urbanization development presented the high speed growth,volatile type and so on;land urbanization development presented the high-speed-high,high-slow-low type and so on.In the perspective of space,the coordinated development degree of population urbanization and land urbanization increased in general in Sichuan,around the 18 cities,the average level of coordinated development degree increased from 0.36 in 2003 to 0.58 in 2014,and all the city in 2014 has reached the medium level in the coordinated development and above;the different regions coordinated development degree between population urbanization and land urbanization obviously is promoting in regional homogeneity,and significantly affected by the social and economic development degree;and it was the cutoff point in 2007 of the coordinated development speed in Sichuan.