摘要
建筑垃圾的数量特征是其进行资源化利用的重要依据。基于建筑面积估算法对西宁市2006—2015年建筑垃圾的年产量进行估算,采用灰色预测法构建出西宁市建筑垃圾年产量的灰色预测模型GM(1,1),进而预测出西宁市2016—2020年建筑垃圾的年产量。结果表明:西宁市2016—2020年建筑垃圾年产量的预测值分别为156.43,176.75,199.71,225.66,254.97万t。该预测模型精度达到一级,预测结果较为准确,可为政府部门制定相关政策提供数据支撑。
The quantitative characteristics of construction and demolition waste （CDW） are a major basis for its utilization. The annual output of CDW in Xining from 2006 to 2015 was estimated using building area estimation method. The grey prediction model G M （1,1） of the annual output of CDW in Xining was constructed by using grey prediction method in order to predict the production of CDW in Xining from 2016 to 2020. The annual forecast of CDW in Xining was 156. 43 × 10^4, 176. 75 × 10^4,199. 71 ×10^4,225. 66 × 10^4,254. 97 × 10^4 ton from 2016 to 2020. The model accuracy rea-ches excellent level and can provide data support for the relevant departments to formulate relevant policies.
作者
李亚东
龚志起
陈柏昆
LI Yadong GONG Zhiqi CHEN Baikun(School of Civil Engineering, Qinghai University, Xining 810016 , China)
出处
《青海大学学报（自然科学版）》
2017年第3期82-87,共6页
Journal of Qinghai University(Natural Science)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71463047)
关键词
建筑垃圾
年产量
灰色预测
GM(1
1)模型
construction and demolition waste
annual output
grey prediction
G M（1,1） model
