基于经典环境库茨涅茨曲线的我国农业碳排放拐点预测及区域比较

Prediction and Regional Comparison of China's Agriculture Carbon Emissions based on Classical Environmental Kuznets Curves

选取1991—2014年我国农业碳排放总量和人均农业GDP的时间序列数据,基于EKC假设,建立我国经济增长与农业碳排放关系函数模型;运用1991—2014年省级面板数据,进行我国农业碳排放与经济增长的区域实证分析。结果表明,我国农业经济增长与碳排放总量之间存在倒"U"型关系,是典型的库兹涅茨曲线,拐点为12.08,到达拐点处人均GDP为177 162.66元。东中西部地区到达EKC拐点的时间不同,东、中、西部地区碳排放EKC到达拐点的时间分别为2065年、2058年和2077年。同时,东、中、西部地区碳排放均表现出较强的路径依赖特征,即存在一定的碳排放惯性。

Based on E K C hypothesis, this paper establishes a function model of economic growth and agricultural carbon emission in China by selecting time series data of China’s total agricultural carbon emission and agricultural GDP per capita from 1991 to 2014, and then uses the provincial panel data from 1991 to 2014 to carry out regional empirical analysis on the relationship between China’s agriculture carbon emission and economic growth. The results show that there is an inverted “U” type relationship between the growth of agricultural economy and the total carbon emissions in China. It is a typical Kuznets curve with an inflection point of 12. 08 and a per capita GDP of RMB 177162.66 Yuan. The time of arrival of the EKC in the eastern, central and western regions will be years 2065, 2058 and 2077 respectively . At the same time, the carbon emissions in the eastern, central and western regions all show strong path dependence, that is, there is a certain carbon inertia.