试析新形势下欧美关系的发展前景

An Analysis of the Prospects of the Development of European-American Relations in the New Situation

在国际体系深刻演变、欧洲安全秩序变动的背景下,奥巴马政府时期欧美关系因自由主义和大西洋主义的共同指引而得到加强。新当选的美国总统特朗普对跨大西洋安全同盟、欧美贸易关系、欧洲一体化等议题发出了与其前任奥巴马不同的声音,引起欧洲盟友对未来欧美关系不确定性的极大担忧。鉴于特朗普"美国第一"执政理念以及跨大西洋两岸极端右翼政治影响上升,欧美关系将遭遇民族国家利益优先、民粹主义、市场保护主义及多边主义危机等诸多挑战。美欧各自出于长远战略和现实需求的考量,在安全同盟成本负担方面将做出务实性妥协,而自由主义不同程度地后退至国家主义,这种意识形态变化将决定欧美关系的发展前景。

In the context of the profound evolution of the international system and the changes in the security order in Europe,the relationship between Europe and the United States during the Obama administration was strengthened because of the common guidelines of liberalism and Atlanticism. Trump,the newly elected President of the United States,is giving a dissenting voice on the transatlantic security alliance,the trade relations between Europe and the United States,European integration and other topics from those of his predecessor,Obama,causing great concerns of the European allies about the uncertainty over European-American Relations in the future. In view of Trump's idea of governing of 'America First'and the elevation of the political influence of extreme rightwing across the Atlantic,the relationship between Europe and the United States will encounter the dominance of the interests of nation states,populism,market protectionism,and a crisis of multilateralism and many other challenges. The United States and Europe will make a pragmatic compromise on the burden-sharing in the security alliance out of their own consideration for long-term strategic and realistic needs,while liberalism retrogrades toward nationalism to varying degrees,and this ideological change will determine the prospects of the development of the relations between Europe and the United States.