俄罗斯在亚太安全体系中的地位与作用

Russia's Position and Role in Asia-Pacific Security System

自19世纪60年代至今,俄罗斯与亚太空间互动的历史逻辑并没有发生根本性的改变。在亚洲国家眼中,俄罗斯是亚太空间的外来者。在俄罗斯自己看来,他们代表着欧洲文明向亚洲扩张的历史进程。"他者"的身份认同使得俄罗斯只能作为外部因素参与到亚太安全体系中。当俄罗斯国势强盛、综合国力凌驾于亚太国家之上时,它能够成为亚太安全体系的平衡者。但当国势衰微,在地区力量结构中处于弱势地位时,俄罗斯在亚太安全体系中的位置就将出现断崖式下跌,成为虽身处体系之中,却无法融入体系变迁进程的"叶甫盖尼·奥涅金"式的边缘角色。俄罗斯参与亚太安全事务的历史就是在这两种状态下反复摇摆的潮汐运动。冷战结束后,俄罗斯在亚太事务上进入了新一轮的弱势周期,在国家力量大幅下降、欧亚空间与亚太空间的力量对比愈发失衡的局面下,俄罗斯逐渐滑向亚太安全体系的边缘位置。在这种情况下,俄罗斯知识精英提出了建构亚洲身份、"大欧亚伙伴关系"以及同亚太支点国家加强双边合作等应对策略,但由于综合国力与国际环境的限制,其效果尚不明显,俄罗斯在亚太安全体系中的困境短时期内难以得到显著改善。

The historical logic of the interaction between Russia and the Asia-Pacific space has not changed fundamentally since the 1860s. In the eyes of Asian countries,Russia is an outsider of the Asia-Pacific space. In Russia's own view,they represent the historical process of the expansion of European civilization to Asia. The identity of the 'other'makes Russia participatein the Asia-Pacific security system as an external factor only. When the Russia's comprehensive national strength surpasses those of the Asia-Pacific countries,it can become a balance force in the Asian-Pacific security system. But when it is in a weak position in the regional power structure,the Russia's role in the Asia-Pacific security system declines in fashion of cliff fall,becoming a marginal role similar to Yevgeny Onegin who was in the system but could not integrate into the evolution process of the system. The history of Russia's participating in AsiaPacific security affairs is such a tidal movement that swings back and forth between these two states. After the Cold War,Russia has entered a new round of the cyclein which it is in a weak position in the Asia-Pacific affairs,and it has gradually slid to the edge of the Asia-Pacific security system with significant decline of its national power and the imbalance of its power between the Eurasian space and the Asia-Pacific space. In this case,the Russian intellectual elite put forward the ideas of building an Asian identity,'Greater Eurasian Partnership,'strengthening bilateral cooperationwith the Asia-Pacific pivot countries and other coping strategies,but due to the constraints of its comprehensive national strength and the international environment,their effects are not evident yet,and Russia caught in the dilemma in the Asia-Pacific security system is difficult to make significant progresses in the near future.