美国楔子战略与亚太联盟预阻

U.S. Wedge Strategy and Prealignment in the Asia-Pacific Region

冷战结束以来,联盟与分化联盟的思维始终贯穿于美国历任政府的国家安全政策之中。特朗普就任美国总统之后,其外交安全战略虽尚未定型,但在国际安全层面仍然延续了联盟思维。本文认为,楔子战略是美国目前亚太战略的重要组成部分,其战略目标是在亚太地区实现联盟预阻,即致力于预先阻止亚太地区形成任何反对美国的潜在安全联盟或联合。楔子战略的具体运行机制主要依靠"选择性调适"型楔子战略的"认可"及"补偿"两种手段,对目标行为体施加分化压力,在利诱一方的同时施压另一方,并利用美国在特定国际政治议题上的立场,撬开并扩大目标行为体与相关国家之间的罅隙,从而获取战略利益。尽管中国奉行"结伴而不结盟"的外交政策,但美国基于威胁制衡理论及联盟预阻思维,仍然寻求在中国与其他亚太国家之间打入楔子,以谋求其自身在亚太地区地缘政治格局中的利益。对此,中国必须保持战略定力并有效应对。

(Dis)alignment has been a constant topic in the U.S.foreign policy discourse since the end of the Cold War.The new administration’s foreign policy is still in the making,and alliance politics will surely take its due place.Wedge strategy is an integral part of U.S.strategy in the Asia-Pacific,with the aim of forestalling the formation of any anti-U.S.Security alliance or coalition.In theory,the effective of U.S.wedge strategy depends on the effective application of two approaches—endorsement and compensation.In practice,the United States is driving a strategic wedge between a rising China and its increasingly nervous neighbors with a view to tilt the regional balance of power in U.S.Favor.The most effective countermeasure that China should adopt is greater strategic perseverance.