我国城乡老年人口消费的实证研究——兼论“退休—消费之谜”

An Empirical Research of Elderly Consumption in Urban and Rural China: With Analysis of “Retirement-Consumption Puzzle”

在老龄化程度持续升高、国内消费动力不足、经济增长下行压力增大的背景下,释放老年人口消费能量成为一个充满机遇的挑战。文章利用"中国健康与养老追踪调查"数据分析发现,全国城乡老年人口消费水平低于平均水平,且消费结构相似。通过采用单因素方差分析和多元回归分析方法对全国老年人口及分城乡老年人口消费决定因素进行研究,结果表明,退休后老年人口消费水平会提高;优势个体特征、良好家庭互动以及健全社会保障等因素有利于释放老年人消费的潜能,其中收入和教育变量作用显著,尤其在农村地区更加显著。鉴于此,研究认为应当统筹城乡发展,通过提供全面的老年产品与有效的老年服务,激发老年人口消费动能,最终促进全国消费需求的增加。

In the context of aging population, insufficient consuming capability, and the downward pressure of economy, releasing the consumption of elderly population is challenging but with full oppor- tunities. By using the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey （CHARLS） data,the study finds that the elderly consumption level is lower than the national average. The consumption structure is similar between urban and rural elderly population. By using the one-way ANOVA and the multivariate regression analysis, our results further suggest that the elderly consumption will increase after retirement. Older people＇s consumption can be promoted by the advancement of individual characteristics, functional family interaction,and sound social security system. Especially,income and education demonstrate a strong impact. Such phenomenon is more apparent in rural area. We propose that the development of urban and rural areas should be coordinated. Furthermore,the government should provide comprehensive products and effective services for the elderly,so as to stimulate their consumption and to promote the domestic consumption demand.