2016年铁矿石价格影响因素分析及未来价格走势预测

Analysis of the infcuence factors iron ore price in 2016 and prediction of the price in the future

铁矿石价格主要受国家税收、石油价格、环保法实施、矿业巨头垄断、"一带一路"政策、新农村建设、世界经济复苏和金融炒作八个因素的影响。2016年,资源税全面实施从价计征;运输成本上升;环保法严格实施;钢铁行业去产能严格落实;矿业巨头垄断进一步加剧,铁矿石成本下降趋势可能终结;人民币贬值超出预期;"一带一路"逐步实施;国际、国内经济缓慢复苏;新农村建设取得一定进展;铁矿石金融炒作愈演愈烈。这些因素变化导致了铁矿石价格在2016年探底回升,普氏62%铁矿石价格指数从2016年年初最低的39.25,上涨到年末最高83.95。预计2017年铁矿石价格将呈"前升后降"走势。更长期来看,铁矿石价格仍将低位运行,合理价格在70~90美元/t。

The price of iron ore is mainly influenced by the national tax,oil price, the implementation of environmental protection law, mining giant monopoly, ＂the Belt and Road＂ policy, the new rural construction,the world economic recovery and financial speculation. In 2016, the price-based reform of resource tax, rising of transportation costs, more severe environmental situation, de-capacity of iron and steel, the intensified mining giant monopoly, devaluation of the renminbi, promotion of ＂the Belt and Road＂ and new rural construction,economic recovery and violent financial speculation have led to a rebound of iron ore price. Platts index（62~./0） rised from 39.25 at the beginning to 83.95 at the end of 2016. The price of iron ore in 2017 is expected to increase in the first half year and decrease in the second half. In the longer term,iron ore price will remain low at about 70~90 USD/t.