东北三省人口分布空间格局演化及其驱动因素研究

Space Pattern Evolution of Population Distribution and the Driving Factors in Northeast China

东北地区作为全国重要老工业基地,在面临新一轮振兴机遇的形势下,人口分布的集疏变化及其驱动因素亟待细致梳理。根据中国第四、第五、第六次分县人口普查资料,运用洛伦兹曲线、人口密度相对变化率和空间自相关分析方法对东北地区1990~2010年、176个县域的人口分布空间格局演化进行深入分析,在此基础上,选取10个自然和社会经济指标,使用偏最小二乘法(PLS)对东北地区人口分布空间格局演化的影响因素进行定量分析,研究发现:(1)从总体分布格局变化特征来看,20 a来人口密度始终是黑龙江省<吉林省<辽宁省,且以省会城市为主的多中心"T"型人口分布空间格局越来越明显;(2)1990~2010年,东北地区人口密度经历了从相对分散到相对集中的变化过程,且人口密度高的地区所占土地面积小,人口密度低的地区占地面积大。人口空间分布呈现显著的正的空间自相关特征,即人口密度存在高高、低低集聚现象;(3)从人口密度变化类型来看,1990~2010年,共80个县域属于快速增加和缓慢增加类型,快速降低和缓慢降低类型的县域共96个,其中辽宁省县域人口密度变化"两极化"现象较为明显;(4)自然因素与社会经济因素同时作用于人口密度变化,但社会经济发展水平是人口密度变化的主要影响因素。

Northeast China is considered as the important old industrial base. However the change of population distribution and driving factors were not clear yet under the circumstance of a new round of revitalization. Therefore, according to the population census data in 1990, 2000 and 2010, Lorenz curve, relative change rate of population density and Moran＇ s I are employed to analysis spatial pattern evolution of population distribution in Northeast China in 1990-2010, which consist of 176 counties. Subsequently, based on the partial least squares （PLS） regression method, 10 natural and social-economic factors are recognized to make quantitative analysis on spatial pattern evolution of population distribution in Northeast China. Major conclusion can be drawn as follows： 1） From the stand point of overall distribution pattern changes in nearly 20 years, average population density shows： Heilongjiang Province 〈 Jilin Province 〈 Liaoning Province. It is more obvious that ＇T＇ type with multicenter of population distribution pattern which mainly to the provincial capital. 2） Population density experienced a changing process from comparative centralized to comparative dispersion. And zones which owned high population density occupy small land area, on the country, zones with low population density hold large land area. Population distribution presents remarkable and positive spatial autocorrelation. 3） From the perspective of changing type of population density, there are 80 counties＇ population are in- creased and 96 are decreased, and it is obvious that polarization phenomenon of population distribution changing in Liaoning province. 4） Nature and social-economic are acting together on population density change, but the social-economic factors have impact on population density change more significantly than natural factors.