东道国经济风险与我国企业对外直接投资二元增长区位选择——基于面板数据门槛效应模型的研究

Host Countries' Economic Risk and Binary Growth Location Choice of China's Foreign Direct Investment:An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data Threshold Effect Model

东道国风险是我国企业对外直接投资面临的主要不稳定因素之一,因而也是区位选择时的重要考虑因素,基于此,本文研究东道国经济风险如何影响我国企业对外直接投资集约和扩张二元增长的区位选择。在比较主要东道国经济风险的基础上,本文利用面板数据门槛效应模型界定我国企业对外直接投资的市场开拓横向动机和生产转移纵向动机,通过实证研究发现,在规模扩大的集约增长维度,我国横向动机企业对外直接投资倾向于选择宏观稳定风险较低的东道国,纵向动机企业对外直接投资倾向于选择经济增长风险较低的东道国;在新设项目的扩张增长维度,我国横向动机企业对外直接投资倾向于选择经济增长风险和宏观稳定风险均较高的东道国,而纵向动机企业对外直接投资不受东道国经济风险的影响。本文的实证研究说明我国企业对外直接投资在集约增长维度属于风险规避类型,但在扩张增长维度属于风险偏好类型。

The risk of host countries is one of the mainly unstable factors faced by foreign direct invest- ment of China＇s enterprises, and also is the important factor of location choice. Based on this, we study how host countries＇ economic risk influences the location choice of Chinese enterprises＇ foreign direct investment in intensive and extensive growth. Comparing the economic risk of host countries, we use panel data threshold effect model to define the horizontal and vertical motivation of China＇s foreign direct investment. Our empirical study find that in the intensive dimension of scale growth, enterprises with horizontal motivation FDI tend to choose the host countries which have lower risk of macroeconomic stability, and enterprises with vertical moti- vation FDI tend to choose the host countries which have lower risk of economic growth ; and in the extensive di- mension of new setting projects, enterprises with horizontal motivation FDI tend to choose the host countries which have higher risk of macroeconomic stability and economic growth, enterprises with vertical motivation do not influenced by host countries＇ economic risk. Our empirical study means that intensive growth of China＇s fo- reign direct investment belongs to the type of risk aversion, and extensive growth of China＇s foreign direct in- vestment belongs to the type of risk preference.